Thursday Night Football Dolphins vs. Bills: Fantasy football matchup analysis

You can watch Thursday Night Football: Bills vs. Dolphins at 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT on NBC or stream on Peacock, Fubo, DirecTV and NFL+

“Thursday Night Football” is off to a great start this season (and if you’ve been watching TNF for years, it’s a great thing), and the good times will continue as the Buffalo Bills travel to Florida to take on the division rival Miami Dolphins. Both teams are 1-0 in the new season.

Let’s move on to the (fantasy) recording story.

Dolphins vs. Bills fantasy analysis

Josh Allen reminded everyone why he’s the No. 1 ranked QB during the fantasy draft season in Week 1. The dual-skilled QB scored four total touchdowns against the Cardinals, two on the ground and two through the air, highlighted by a standout example of hero ball.

Of course, those two rushing TDs hampered the production of James Cook, who, despite totaling 103 yards of offense, was held out of the end zone — a common weakness in his fantasy profile. While Cook does have the talent and opportunity to throw down long touchdown runs or catch scores through the air, fantasy managers will be hoping this is the game where Cook finally gets some rushing attempts across the goal line.

Back to the air, the Bills’ pass-catching conundrum remains as we head into tonight’s game. The biggest disappointment from Week 1 was Dalton Kincaid. Everyone was waiting for the second-year tight end to break out this season, and what a feat for the Cardinals to do in Week 1, a defense that has been terrible at defending tight ends the past few seasons.

In contrast, Kincaid only caught one dismal catch; Dawson Knox also caught one. Still, I remain bullish on Kincaid; his snap share in Week 1 was very high, so fantasy managers shouldn’t worry about his starters catching just one catch in 2024. However, you have to at least consider the ceiling of the Bills’ pass-catching players. This is a run-heavy offense that lives and dies by Allen’s heroics. Maybe we just won’t get target No. 1 here. Luckily, Week 2’s game against the high-flying (swimming?) Dolphins will provide more clues.

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Oh, what a game the Dolphins had in Week 1. Both Tyreek Hill (12-7-130-1) and Jaylen Waddle (5-5-109) eclipsed the 100-yard mark in a game that felt like a lot more value than the 20-17 score would have you believe. But perhaps the most interesting development came from second-year running back De’Von Achane.

Achane led the Dolphins in rushing attempts with 10, reaching double digits on a day when Raheem Mostert (who has been ruled out for this game) was out with a pectoral injury. Achane only managed 24 yards on the ground, but he ended up as the seventh-highest-grading rusher in the PPR half. How, you ask? With a fantasy RB cheat code, of course.

Achane was third on the team in total receiving, catching all seven of his targets (second behind Hill) for 76 yards (third behind Waddle). Achane also caught one pass from the Dolphins at the goal line, which he converted for a touchdown.

Catches and touchdowns — that’s what we want from our defensive players.

Of course, Mostert left this game, and Waddle has been out with injuries for a while now. Even Achane is coming off an ankle injury that ultimately made him a game-changing presence for tonight’s game. But how can you not be excited about this usage? It’s only natural that the Dolphins will give the younger, fresher Achane more work to do this season to help him continue to develop as a versatile player while keeping the 32-year-old Mostert around for the season.

The question we all want answered tonight is, with Mostert out, how big will Achane’s role be? Will Jeff Wilson Jr. and/or Jaylen Wright (who will likely be activated) play Achane’s role in 2023? Or will Achane surprise us all with an unexpected breakout performance?

Don’t be too quick to believe, though — fantasy managers should still hope that Achane is even cleared to play. He’s currently questionable, but there’s optimism that he’ll be good to go tonight. If he’s ruled out, Jeff Wilson Jr. will likely lead the charge out of the backfield, but the rookie Wright still has a chance in deeper leagues in what should be a fun game.

Fantasy lineup suggestions

This matchup has the second-highest O/U on the Week 2 slate, so we’re expecting a fantasy carnival (of course, TNF and divisional matchups are known to provide some… undesirable previous surprise) featuring two of the best offenses in the NFL. So basically, I don’t need to tell you that you’re going to start with Josh Allen, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Tua Tagovailoa, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle.

However, there is one player on the fringes of starting ability who I believe will rise to prominence in 12+ team leagues this week.

STARTING: Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills

Remember when I said the Bills might not have a true No. 1 target this season? He might not be ready yet.

Coleman ended his pro debut with four catches for 51 yards — not bad for a rookie receiver who was widely criticized for having only one trick up his sleeve post-draft, but nothing special. But Coleman not only led the Bills in targets (a 21.7% share among Bills WR targets) on a day they scored 34 points, but he also led the Bills in routes run in Week 1; if you had told me he would lead the team before Week 1, I wouldn’t have believed it.

Sure enough, Coleman was out there, running in front of Dalton Kincaid (the second-year TE everyone thought would be the obvious recipient of the targets vacated by Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis), Khalil Shakir (the only defensive WR on the team who had ever caught a pass from Allen before this season) and Curtis Samuel (Samuel caught just two passes on two targets for 15 yards) in the passing game.

Of course, all of Coleman’s moves and routes come from the outside, which somewhat limits his production at this point in his career, but the big-play ceiling — which is his calling card as a 6’3″ X-receiver — remains, as we saw in Week 1 when he outran a defender for a 28-yard catch.

While I expect the Bills to involve Kincaid more going forward, this game (ideally) would be a back-and-forth affair since both Week 1 games are for these two teams. That would give Coleman more potential for another big play or two. And we just saw another 2024 rookie WR, Brian Thomas Jr. (4-4-47-1 Week 1) have his way against this beatable Dolphins secondary (in fact, Thomas did a lot of work against Jalen Ramsey).

If you’re chasing potential at receiver in Week 2, consider young Coleman, who has undoubtedly moved the needle in his favor in the eyes of quarterbacks and coaching staffs after his debut performance.

Don’t break the cardinal rule of fantasy by starting a Thursday receiver in your flex spot!